The Sinocism China Newsletter – June 24, 2015

Bill Bishop , June 24, 2015 1:41pm

THE ESSENTIAL EIGHT

1. CPC meeting warns of slack discipline enforcement in SOEs – Xinhua The statement also said that a fresh round of inspections will be launched at 26 governmental agencies, institutions and SOEs including the Ministry of Transport, the People’s Daily, the China Resources and the Aluminum Corp. Maximum effort should be applied when governing the Party, and inspection work is integral to implementing this, the statement said. As the drive to strictly govern the Party deepens, inspection work has been closely linked with the “Four Comprehensives,” it said, adding that inspections have helped curb and deter discipline violations. “Solutions to problems in China rest with the CPC, and to solve the problems of the CPC should rely on strengthened supervision of the Party by the party itself and by the public,” it said. “To maintain the advanced nature and health of the Party is a major challenge for us,” it went on. “It has been proven that the CPC is able to correct its own mistakes.”

Related: China’s graft-busters train sights on new round of targets | South China Morning Post The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said in an article on its website that the companies to be targeted in this year’s second inspection round included China Resources Group, China National Travel Service (HK) Group Corporation, China Merchants Group, China Eastern Airlines, Anshan Iron and Steel Group, and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. Apart from party mouthpiece People’s Daily, official bodies targeted include the State Council’s poverty relief and development leading group, the Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, the Taiwan Work Office of the Communist Party and party journal Qiushi.

Related: 王岐山:巡视顺党心合民意 要为全面从严治党做出新贡献—中央纪委监察部网站 经中央批准,2015年中央第二轮巡视将对中央台湾工作办公室、中央直属机关事务管理局、交通运输部、国家机关事务管理局、国家铁路局、中国民用航空局、国务院扶贫开发领导小组办公室、人民日报社、求是杂志社、中国航空集团公司、中国东方航空集团公司、中国港中旅集团公司、招商局集团有限公司、中国航天科技集团公司、中国航天科工集团公司、中国航空工业集团公司、中国兵器工业集团公司、中国兵器装备集团公司、中国商用飞机有限责任公司、华润(集团)有限公司、鞍钢集团公司、中国铝业公司、中国第一重型机械集团公司、哈尔滨电气集团公司、中国邮政集团公司、中国铁路总公司等26家单位进行专项巡视。// the full list of the next inspection tour victims…

2. Background Briefing on the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue MODERATOR: All right, thank you very much, Steve, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. As Steve said, this will be a call on background; it will be attributed – attributable to a senior State Department official – no names or titles please. But just for everyone’s awareness, the person we have with us today is [Senior State Department Official]. But again, from here on out, refer to [Senior State Department Official] as a senior State Department official. And today’s call will be about the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, and with that, I will turn it over to our speaker for a few introductory words and then we’ll get to your questions

Related: 以战略定力促中美关系行稳致远(钟声)-搜狐滚动 People’s Daily commentator Zhong Sheng on US-China relations on even of latest S&ED 

Related: 海外版望海楼:中美关系,有了“压舱石”,还需“定海针”-人民网 People’s Daily Overseas Edition column “Haiwang Lou” on the US-China relationship

Related: 社评:中美战略对话应达到四个目标_评论_环球网 Global Times commentary on the S&ED 

Related: China, U.S. to focus on length, quality of negative lists in investment treaty talks – Xinhua “During the latest 19th round of negotiations, the two sides exchanged the initial offers of negative lists,” Zhang Xiangchen, deputy China International Trade representative and assistant minister of commerce, said at a press briefing through a translator on the sidelines of the seventh round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) starting Tuesday in Washington D.C. “The negative list itself is a major progress in the negotiations, and both sides described it as a milestone event,” Zhang said, noting that it will “fundamentally change foreign investment administration regime” and “substantially facilitate foreign investment” in China. //19 rounds of negotiations for something probably as big as a phone book…this could go on for years, but no BIT is better than a bad BIT

3. Changing China policy: Are we in search of enemies? | Brookings Institution – Jeffrey Bader Our security, and that of our partners, will not be aided, however, by a strategy that suggests we have decided that China is, or inevitably will be, an adversary. Our allies and partners in Asia certainly welcome our presence, security and otherwise, in the face of a rising and more assertive China, but they do not welcome hostility toward China. They want to see us work out or at least manage our differences, and to do so in a way that promotes continued economic dynamism and lowers tensions in the region. That will require us sometimes to resist unwelcome Chinese behavior that threatens to destabilize the region. It does not require that we make dubious pessimistic assumptions about China’s future behavior and set up a hostile dynamic leading to a downward spiral. China, not the United States, will make the critical decisions about its future. If despite our best efforts, it takes steps that harm the security of our allies and partners or undermine global norms and order, that will be its decision, not ours, and we will need to adjust our strategy accordingly. We should not, however, discard the approach taken by eight presidents since Nixon in favor of an assumption of inevitable hostility and a strategy of across-the-board rivalry that may be compelling in international relations theory but which no president has found persuasive

Related: INTERVIEW/ Kurt Campbell: China should think carefully about provoking South China Sea tensions – AJW by The Asahi Shimbun In an interview with The Asahi Shimbun at his Washington, D.C., office, Campbell discussed a range of topics from Chinese land reclamation in the South China Sea to the relocation of a U.S. air base in Okinawa Prefecture. On the issue of the South China Sea, Campbell emphasized U.S. interests in freedom of navigation, and cautioned China to consider carefully how its actions could affect relations with its neighbors. “China is beginning to understand, and realize, what the United States has known for a long period of time, that when big powers do things, they get more attention than when smaller powers do,” he said.// how big a role might Campbell have in a Hillary Clinton White House? National Security Advisor?

Related: China’s Place in U.S. Foreign Policy – The American Interest KARL W. EIKENBERRY An effective U.S. China policy is best built on a thorough assessment of the context in which Sino-American relations exist and operate.

Related: What if Beijing and Washington understood each other perfectly…but still clashed? – Lowy Interpreter According to RAND, today’s superpowers understand and trust each other little, and both hold subjective views of the other that can be corrected through exchange and interaction. But a century ago, Britain and Germany knew each other intimately, suggesting that their conflict was not simply some intellectual error. Instead, at least one side saw war as unavoidable and even desirable. Is it possible that China and America could understand each other perfectly, and still clash? What if the problem is not one of information or imagination, but of pure stubborn interest? RAND would argue that calamity still arises from those three informational failures. But with the recent passing of John Nash, we are reminded that even enlightened, rational actors making ‘maximising’ decisions can end up in lose-lose outcomes.

4. China’s Stocks Rise Monday in Biggest Intraday Rebound in Eight Years – Bloomberg Business The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.2 percent to 4,576.49 at the close after sinking as much as 4.8 percent in the morning session, a 312-point recovery that was bigger than any since June 2007.

Related: Big Investors Bet on China Despite Recent Losses – Barron’s With China’s markets weak, investors are aggressively betting the CSI 300 Index — essentially the largest stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges — will surge through July. Surprising as this may seem given the recent weakness, these investors created upside call positions in the past 10 days. They bought Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 Index ETF’s (ticker: ASHR ) July $55, $60 and $65 calls. Other investors sold ASHR December $45 puts, expressing confidence ASHR remains above $45 by expiration.

Related: China Traders Cut Margin Debt in First Two-Day Drop Since April – Bloomberg Business Chinese traders sold shares purchased with borrowed money for a second day on Tuesday, the first back-to-back decline since April, after the benchmark stock index tumbled the most since the 2008 global financial crisis. The outstanding balance of margin debt fell 0.7 percent on Tuesday and 0.2 percent last Friday on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, according to bourse data. Margin debt rose to a record 1.48 trillion yuan ($238.5 billion) on June 18. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a seven-year high on June 12 before slumping 13 percent last week.

Related: China Shares Rally as IPO-Induced Funds Return – WSJ Chinese stocks are rallying in early trade, boosted by a return of funds previously locked up for purchases of initial public offerings

Related: 复盘900点巨震_证券时报网 “Peizi” loans selling pressures peaked Friday, have passed, says Shanghai Securities Journal  //  A股昨日度过了惊心动魄的一天。各大指数午前均快速跳水,沪综指击穿60日均线,6个交易日内最多时下跌逾900点。随后午盘又强劲反弹,走出“深V”反转。牛市中投资者情绪在“贪婪”与“恐惧”间的切换,在短短几个交易日中尽显无遗。 上证报记者了解到,在昨日指数大落大起之后,场外配资平仓洪峰或已平稳度过,市场自发降杠杆的过程可能暂告一段落。而在高风险偏好资金离场之后,牛市节奏有望更趋稳健,行情热点也将围绕更具确定性的改革预期与业绩改善展开。

5. China puts $6 trillion price tag on its climate plan | Reuters Xie Zhenhua, special representative for climate change affairs at China’s National Development and Reform Commission, said the objectives China will outline by the end of June will be “quite ambitious”. Xie was participating in a three-day Strategic and Economic Dialogue forum in Washington where he met with counterparts in the Obama administration, including U.S. climate negotiator Todd Stern, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy and Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz.

6. 我能来美国,都是托作弊的福-新闻-中国新闻周刊 you can buy TOEFL cheating packages on Taobao…China Newsweek looks at how people cheat on the various exams needed to go to school in the US  //  零花钱、压岁钱、书本费、报名费、参加活动的各种费用从进入高中的第二年开始,赵晨宇(化名)不断地以各种名目从父母那儿要钱。得到的每一笔钱,都让他朝着父母为他制定的留学美国的目标逼近一步。赵晨宇没有挥霍父母给他的钱,而是省吃俭用,悄悄把它们积攒下来。在自己的淘宝账户里,他接受了同学的推荐,秘密参加了昂贵的“名师保分”托福考试培训,而这种“培训”的内容只有一项——帮助他在托福考试中作弊。

7. Internet Companies Writing New Prescription for Health Care Industry-Caixin Companies offering health-related apps are looking for more tangible – and profitable – offline options, a change that could revolutionize the medical sector

8. “接盘富豪”车峰_财新周刊频道_财新网 Caixin out with another long article on the detention of Che Feng, son in law of former PBoC head Dai Xianglong. Dai is not mentioned in this article but the rumors are getting thick in Beijing that Dai himself has been detained and that he is giving up lots of names and details, which if true could make some tigers quite nervous… //  多位消息人士对财新记者证实,车峰被查,动因之一是2015年1月落马的原安全部副部长马建及北京盘古氏投资有限公司实际控制人郭文贵案;此外,车峰还涉嫌非法洗钱等问题,所涉金额极为巨大。 财新此前报道称,郭文贵分别与车峰和马建熟识,车峰经郭文贵介绍结识了马建。知情人士告诉财新记者,郭车两人过从甚密。车峰曾向一直苦于资金短缺的郭文贵提供借款6亿元。 财新记者调查发现,车峰与郭文贵还涉及另外一桩交易。2012年9月,即车峰控制的数字王国借壳奥亮集团前夕,郭文贵以郭浩云的身份,从车峰兄长车涛手中买入8.6%的奥亮集团股份,2015年1月16日全部套现,净赚8000多万港元。彼时,郭文贵与原北大方正集团CEO李友的对战已经两败俱伤,李友于1月4日被带走,郭文贵逃亡海外仅以身免,其在北京公司高管遭调查,公司银行账号被封。而马建则正是在1月16日被中央纪委宣布接受调查。车峰落网或许并非句号。是否会借此清查他的财富积累过程,是否存在其相关人士利用权力、围猎权力获取财富的事实,外界相当关注。

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Bill Bishop

Author and curator of the daily Sinocism newsletter.