china retirees

Shrinking Labor Force Means China’s Pension System is Drying Up

Huge stress on pension system as labor force shrinks

After years of speculation, changes to China’s statutory age of retirement will finally be introduced next year according to Jin Weigang, a researcher with the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

Jin told reporters over the weekend that the plans will be introduced in 2017, followed by a “five-year transitional period”.

China’s current age of retirement is 60 for men, 55 for female white-collar workers, and 50 for female blue collar workers. With the rapid decline in China’s labor force, largely as a result of the now-abolished one-child policy, the reforms are expected to ease the demographic shift.

Every year for the past four years, China’s labor force has declined by 4.87 million, while the total number of elderly continues to increase, putting enormous strain on the country’s pension system. It’s estimated that while three workers supported one retiree in 2015, the strain of paying for the social security of every retiree will fall to one for every 1.3 workers by 2050.

At the same time, life expectancy in China has grown by about 30 years since the mandatory age of retirement was first implemented in the mid-1950s. As the average life expectancy in 1953 was only 43 years, and most workers weren’t even expected to reach the age of retirement.

Fan Ming, Director of the Institute of Market Economy at Henan University of Economics and Law, said Chinese workers should look at the bigger picture when considering retirement: “People should realize that it is their responsibility to extend their retirement age because they are enjoying an increased life expectancy and many people can still work beyond the current statutory retirement age,” he said.

Wang Dewen, a social protection economist with the World Bank’s Beijing office, pointed out that the average age of retirement in China is 53, while life expectancy stands at 75. Wang said the gap is much wider than the 12 years he believes is a reasonable period for an individual to draw a pension.

Officials have been toying with the idea of raising the age of retirement for a few years now. In 2011, Yin Weimin, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security,announced that changes were imminent but was reluctant to announce a formal timetable. In 2012, social security official, He Ping, said China’s age of retirement should be pushed back so that everyone retires at the age of 65.

And last year, CCTV offered precise details of the future policy by reporting plans for a “gradual adjustment”:

The retirement age will only be raised by a few months each year after the plan is implemented. It will be rolled out by 2017. Before then, the public will have to reach a consensus on the change.

Experts and officials like Jin and He have pointed to a Western model which they believe China could adopt.

Charles Liu

The Nanfang's Senior Editor