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China To Hit 1.45 Billion People in 2028, Later Than Originally Thought

Peak to be delayed by three years

China’s population isn’t expected to peak at 1.45 billion people until 2028, later than originally thought, largely as a result of the two-child policy.

“According to the predictions, if China kept the previous strict family planning policy, the population would peak at 1.415 billion in 2025,” said Zhai Zhenwu, President of the School of Sociology and Population Studies at the Renmin University of China. He also said the two-child policy will reduce the rate at which the population shrinks.

In March of this year, the head of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, Li Bin, said demographic models suggest the population in China will eventually peak at 1.45 billion.

Other experts have lamented that China’s declining birth rate will cause the country’s population to drop to half its current number within 80 years, dramatically impacting China’s labor force.

China’s population reached 1.37 billion at the end of 2015, up 6.8 million from a year before.

The UN is predicting India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2028.

Charles Liu

The Nanfang's Senior Editor